John Wilson - The Future of Commercial Real Estate and Aerial Imagery

The numbers stopped making sense somewhere around 2021. A 52.3% year-over-year increase in property values in a single Seattle community. Then a 22% correction the following year. These aren't the gentle market cycles we studied in our IAAO courses, they're seismic shifts that challenge every assumption about how we do our jobs.

John Wilson, King County Assessor since 2016, put it plainly during our conversation at IAAO 2023: "It creates real challenges in how do you deal with setting values and deal with the law and assessment policy when none of them were designed to deal with a real estate market this dynamic."

He's right. And if you're reading this, you're probably living it too.

The Tale of Two Markets

Remember when we thought the pandemic would crater residential values? Wilson admits he expected the same. Instead, couples working from home looked at each other across their kitchen tables and realized they needed more space, immediately. The residential market exploded.

Meanwhile, commercial property owners are discovering what happens when employees tell their bosses, "I'm not coming into work every day anymore." Wilson shared an anecdote that should keep us all up at night: a senior law partner at a major Seattle firm reported having 25 people spread across five floors on a good day. "So we're asking ourselves, do we need this much space?"

The answer, increasingly, is no. And that's creating assessment challenges we've never faced at this scale.

Beyond the Crystal Ball: Real-Time Intelligence

Here's where Wilson's approach gets interesting. While everyone talks about housing affordability, King County is actually doing something about it, by leveraging what assessors do best: data.

"We're trying to develop a relative real-time dashboard of how much housing do we have, what do we actually need, what kind of housing do we need and where can we put it?" Wilson explained. No more consultant reports projecting needs for 2040 or 2050. The crisis is now, and the data needs to match that urgency.

They're mining their database of 720,000 parcels to identify surplus public lands, abandoned commercial sites, and underutilized properties. Four-year vacant Sam's Clubs with 144,000 square feet and commercial kitchens? That's not just dead retail, it's potential emergency housing.

This is assessment work at its most impactful: not just valuing what is, but identifying what could be.

The Office-to-Life-Science Pivot

While everyone's talking about converting offices to apartments, Wilson's team spotted a different trend through their aerial imaging program: office-to-life-science conversions. The tell? Sophisticated HVAC and air purification systems suddenly appearing on rooftops.

"You can't do life sciences via telecommuting," Wilson noted. These companies want long-term commitments and will pay premium prices. It's a reminder that markets don't just decline, they transform. Our job is to track those transformations in real time.

Technology as Force Multiplier

Wilson's been using aerial imagery for nearly 20 years, but the game has changed. What used to require expensive fixed-wing aircraft now comes from drones, balloons, and satellites at a fraction of the cost. The imagery helps field teams prep before site visits, identifies property changes, and, critically, provides rapid damage assessment after disasters.

But here's the key insight: "We inherently generate such an enormous amount of data, we really need the expertise to sort of look at it and say, well, here's the part of it that's valuable."

Wilson predicts larger jurisdictions will soon need dedicated data scientists. Not IT staff. Not GIS techs. Data scientists who can extract meaning from the overwhelming flow of information we collect.

Expanding the Assessor's Role

Perhaps the most intriguing part of Wilson's vision is how he sees the assessor's office evolving. We collect data on building materials, egress routes, construction types, information that's gold for first responders, planners, and emergency management.

"We're trying to look at how we can create technology tools that value those or place those in the hands of people," he said. It's assessment as community intelligence hub, not just tax office.

Key Takeaways

For Assessment Leaders:

• Your existing data is more valuable than you think. Start exploring non-traditional uses that serve your community while showcasing your office's expertise.
• Consider aerial imagery not just for valuation accuracy but as a strategic planning tool for identifying market shifts and opportunities.
• The commercial market correction isn't uniform. Watch for emerging uses like life-sciences that can transform struggling properties.

For Field Staff:

• Market volatility means your observations are more crucial than ever. Document not just what you see, but what's changing.
• Prep with aerial imagery before field visits, it's about efficiency and spotting discrepancies that matter.

For the Profession:

• Wilson's advice to newcomers? "Go for it." Despite the challenges, this remains vital work that touches every corner of our communities.
• "Assessments is not a perfect science, it's an evolving one," Wilson reminds us. In times like these, evolution isn't optional, it's survival.

The quicksand markets of 2020-2023 have taught us that our models, laws, and policies weren't built for this level of volatility. But that's precisely why our work matters more than ever. We're not just tracking values, we're providing the intelligence communities need to navigate unprecedented change.