Herman Perkins - The State of the Assessment Industry

The property assessment profession stands at a critical juncture. While the private sector races ahead with machine learning and automated workflows, many assessment offices still operate with decade-old cost tables and paper forms. This isn't a story about resistant bureaucrats, it's about dedicated professionals caught between mounting public demands and outdated infrastructure.

The Regression Reality Check

Paul Bidanset's recent survey delivers a sobering statistic: only 16% of assessment agencies claiming to use automated valuation models (AVMs) actually employ linear regression or understand whether they're using it. This finding cuts to the heart of our profession's technology challenge.

As Herman Perkins noted in a recent conversation, "Most assessors I've talked to know about linear regression and agree that it makes things more accurate. It's the ideal way to value properties." Yet the gap between knowledge and implementation remains vast.

The barriers aren't mysterious. State regulations in places like Michigan mandate the use of approved cost tables, effectively freezing valuation methods in time. Meanwhile, offices using cost tables from 2012 or 2014 struggle to keep pace with wild market swings, a particular challenge given the housing market upheavals of recent years.

The Equity Imperative

Perhaps no issue deserves more attention than the growing equity gap in property tax appeals. Large commercial property owners, think Walmart, Amazon, maintain teams dedicated to challenging assessments. They understand the system, have the resources, and consistently secure reductions.

Small business owners and homeowners? They're too busy running their shops or raising their families to navigate lengthy appeal processes. The result is a slow but steady shift of the tax burden toward those least equipped to challenge it.

This isn't just about fairness, it's about public trust. Property tax remains the most visible, tangible connection between citizens and their local government. Unlike income tax that vanishes from paychecks or sales tax absorbed at checkout, property tax arrives as a bill demanding attention. When taxpayers perceive inequity in the system, they don't just question their assessment, they question the entire apparatus of local government.

The Workforce Crisis Nobody's Discussing

Here's an uncomfortable truth: we're not attracting enough young talent to replace retiring assessors. The progression from real estate agent or fee appraiser to mass appraisal professional once provided a steady pipeline. Today, that pipeline has slowed to a trickle.

"A lot of people, especially ambitious young folks, they're not really looking for stability in their careers so much anymore," Perkins observes. They want rapid advancement and frequent job changes, patterns that don't align with a field where chief assessors often serve 20-30 years.

This isn't just a human resources problem. It's a knowledge crisis. When experienced assessors retire without trained replacements, decades of local market understanding walks out the door. No algorithm can replace the assessor who remembers why certain neighborhoods developed differently or understands the subtle factors affecting local property values.

Technology as Bridge, Not Replacement

The solution isn't to abandon human judgment for artificial intelligence. Instead, we need technology that amplifies assessor capabilities while respecting professional expertise.

Consider the potential of machine learning for routine tasks: flagging data entry errors, identifying outlier sales, or planning efficient field inspection routes. These aren't replacements for professional judgment, they're tools that free assessors to focus on what matters: ensuring fair, accurate valuations that maintain public trust.

Modern visualization tools offer another bridge. When taxpayers can see their property's valuation in context, displayed on maps showing neighborhood trends and comparable sales, abstract numbers become understandable patterns. Explanation becomes easier when citizens can literally see the reasoning.

The Path Forward

Some jurisdictions are already pioneering solutions. Texas requires annual reappraisals, preventing the massive valuation jumps that shock taxpayers elsewhere. Progressive offices are implementing tablet-based field collection systems that actually improve on paper forms rather than complicating them.

But technology adoption requires more than purchasing software. It demands:

• Training programs that meet assessors where they are, not where vendors wish they were
• State regulations that allow modern statistical methods while maintaining oversight
• Public education about property tax's role in funding schools, public safety, and infrastructure
• Career pathways that attract analytical minds to public service

Key Takeaways

The assessment profession doesn't need disruption, it needs evolution. Our challenges are real: an aging workforce, growing equity concerns, and technology gaps that widen daily. But so are our opportunities.

Modern tools can help us achieve what every assessor wants: fair, accurate, explainable valuations that maintain public confidence. The question isn't whether to embrace change, but how to do so while honoring the expertise and public service ethos that define our profession.

The most sophisticated algorithm can't replace an assessor's understanding of local markets. But the right technology, thoughtfully implemented, can ensure that understanding reaches more properties, serves more taxpayers, and builds stronger communities. That's not just modernization, it's fulfilling our fundamental mission.